April 2008

 

In This Version:

  • Americans Working Less but not by Choice
  • New Era of Thrift
  • Play Taken Seriously
  • Federal Spending Patterns
  • Great Data on Older Americans
  • The Marketing Power of “Neighborhoods”

Critical Emerging Trends

While there has been no lack of evidence as to where the economy was headed, the most recent reports issued from various financial sectors indicate that there are two emerging patterns with significant influence upon how Americans will live, work, and play:

  • Americans Working Fewer Hours
  • New Era of Thrift

Americans Working Less

The downturn in the economy is causing a decline in the number of hours that Americans are working. Businesses are cutting positions and/or hours. Self-employed, service providers such as music teachers, caterers, and consultants find less demand for their services and many Americans have come to settle for part-time work when unable to find full-time employment.

Additional facts and factors related to the downturn in employment include:

  • official unemployment has increased only slightly to 5.1% but that does not adequately reflect the decrease in wages and working hours
  • by March of this year the number of hours being worked by Americans dropped when compared to the prior six month period
  • Statistics recorded at the end of March 2008 found more than 4.9 million people were under-employed meaning they were working part-time while trying to secure full-time work or working for an employer who had cut back on their hours.

(Source: Americans work less, but not by choice. USA Today, April 18, 2008)

New Era of Thrift

There are numerous indicators that the long spending spree among Americans may be coming to a close. In the past American consumers played a large role in fueling the economic growth picture in the country, most economists anticipate that data for the first quarter of 2008 will mark the end of that trend.

Other indicators of this shift include:

  • sales of cars fell 12% compared to last year at this time
  • 21,000 retail stores have closed since January 2008 with an additional 65,000 closings anticipated by the end of the year
  • the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller index of housing prices report a 12.7% decline in 20 metro areas; this represents a drop of 12.% from a year ago

… This is going to usher in a period when consumption is going
to be as weak as we’ve seen it in two decades.
Edwin F. McKelvey of Goldman Sachs

(Source: Los Angeles Times as reported in Sarasota Herald Tribune, 4/30/08.

Play Taken Seriously

While the New York Times might not truly be the arbiter of all things important, the New York Times does remain a bench mark for designating areas of life warranting attention. Imagine the magnitude of importance and attention when the editors elect to feature “play” as the focus for their entire magazine section.

The impetus for the magazine’s focus was apparently a sold out appearance by Stuart Brown, the president of the National Institute for Play, at the New York Public Library.
Brown created this institute in 1996 after 20+ years of working in psychiatric practice and research persuaded him that there were long term consequences association with play deprivation.

This version of trendSCAN features some of the highlights revealed in this focus upon play that may be of interest for us in parks and recreation.

American Conversation About Play

Play has become an important topic among parents and other professionals working
with youth and that conversation includes:

  • the reduction or elimination of recess from over-crowded school curriculums
  • complaints from psychologists that overscheduled children result in no time left for the real business of childhood which is play
  • parental concern that children are not playing as they did as children (or recall they did as children), i.e. stickball, hopscotch, etc.
  • the recent best seller, The Dangerous Book for Boys, with its step-by-step instruction for activities such as folding paper airplanes and other joys from the good old days of play
  • while parents bemoan nostalgia for the good old days of childhood, more U.S. students are taking music lessons, learning languages, etc. as an edge to get into a good college or university
  • many Americans are surprised to learn that students in the United States are falling behind the rest of the world in science and math competencies

Controversy Surrounding Play

Now here’s something that will come as no shock to park and recreation professionals:

Further study is required to examine whether play is a luxury or
the one important way that children develop complex skills and flexible brains

The controversy surrounding play and its importance always centers around the discussion as to whether play is essential or can be eliminated from childhood. There are some biologists who believe play is somewhat of a frill which in turn, leads other researchers to ask why play has persisted over time unless it fulfilled some important human need.

Part of the controversy comes from the varying definitions and theories related to child’s play. For instance:

  • biologists consider play as “apparently purposeless activity”; Gordon Burghardt of the University of Tennessee modifies this definition a bit by referring to play as an activity of “limited immediate function”
  • one view reports “play-as-preparation” where it is believed that play serves a role in the preparation for adulthood.
  • another theory suggests that play is not about preparation for adulthood, but rather play contributes to the growth and development of the brain, particularly as it relates to the cerebellum, the portion of the brain devoted to movement.

While there is little doubt that the discussions and controversies surrounding play will continue, it can be considered progress that concerns about play and its role in the livers and well-being of children is being discussed.

(Source: New York Times, 2/17/2008)

Show Me Federal Spending Patterns

The release of two reports, Consolidated Federal Funds Report: 2006 and Federal Aid to States for Fiscal Year 2006 revealed the following information regarding how the federal government disbursed its fund. Some of the statistics include:

  • Federal government disbursed $2.45 trillion in domestic spending in 2006; an increase of 7.5% over 2005.
  • Defense spending totaled $400 billion in 2006 which includes procurement contracts, payroll, military pensions and grants; $75 billion was spend on the Department of Homeland Security.
  • Federal disbursements among states was highest for Louisiana at $16,263 per person followed by Mississippi at $14,516 and Alaska at $13,805.
  • The states receiving the lowest per capita distribution of federal funds were Nevada ($5,852), Utah ($6,162) and Minnesota ($6,175).
  • California received 10.3% of the total distribution of federal expenditures while Texas received 6.8 % and New York at 6.2%

Approximately, one half of all domestic spending with the exception of interest on the federal debt went to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Other facts related to these programs include:

  • Total amount expended on these 3 programs was $1.16 trillion
  • The one year increase in spending on these 3 programs approximates $170 for

On a more positive note, California received the largest share of civilian federal government employee retirement and disability dollars at $5 billion

http://www.census.gov/PressRelease/www/releases/archives/governments/011813.html

Great Data on Older Americans

There are a number of interesting and disturbing insights from the Older Americans 2008: Key Indicators of Well-Being, the 4th comprehensive look at aging in the United States from the Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics since 2000. (This 160 page report is published by the Forum, a consortium representing 15 agencies with responsibilities for Federal data collection or aging programs and is considered the most reliable official statistics about the well-being of older Americans).

The 38 indicators highlighted in this report are segmented into five broader categories: population, economics, health status, health risks and behaviors and health care. .

While this report cites the continued increases in life expectancy, better health, and financial security among older Americans, this continued news is somewhat lessened when the rates of gain appear inconsistent in a number of areas such as gender, age, income levels, and racial and ethnic groupings.
Highlights from Older Americans 2008 include:

Use of Time.

Leisure time physical and social activities decline with age

  • The proportion of leisure time that older Americans spent socializing and communicating—such as visiting friends or attending social events—declines by age, from 13% in those ages 55 to 64 to 10% for those 75 and over.
  • The proportion of leisure time devoted to sports, exercise, recreation and travel also declines with age. On an average day, most Americans age 65 and older spent at least half of their leisure time watching television.
  • Americans age 75 and older spent a higher proportion of their leisure time reading, relaxing and thinking than did those ages 55 to 64.

Population

Aging of the baby boomers continue to drive the percentages upward

  • In 2006, an estimated 37 million people in the United State (12 % of the population) were 65 and older.
  • Projections forecast that by 2030, approximately 71.5 million people (approximately 20% of the population) will be 65 and older

Education

Educational levels have increased but not evenly across population groups

  • In 1965, 24 % of older adults had graduated from high school while 5 % had bachelor’s degrees.
  • By 2007, 76 % were high school graduates with 19% with at least a bachelor’s degree.
  • Educational differences exist among racial and ethnic groups as 81% of non-Hispanic whites age 65 and older had finished high school in 2007. This is in comparison with the 72, 58 and 42 percent, respectively, of older Asians, blacks and Hispanics.

Economics

Income and financial security increased for this generation with some exceptions based on gender, racial, and ethnicity

  • Income in general increased between 1974 and 2006. The proportion of older people with incomes below the poverty line went from 15% to 9%. Those older Americans with low income dropped from 35% to 26% and those with high incomes increased from 18% to 29%.
  • Median net worth for households headed by whites age 65 and older was six times that of older black households. However, this does reflect a slight narrowing in that gap since 2003.
  • More older people, especially women continued to work past age 55.

Health Status

Americans living longer but not as long as others

  • Life expectancy in the U.S. is lower than that of other comparable countries such as Canada, France, Sweden and Japan.
  • In 2003, women age 65 in Japan could expect to live 3.2 years more on average than women in the United States, with the difference among men at 1.2 years.
  • In the early 1980s, U.S. women age 65 had one of the highest average life expectancies in the world, but over the next two decades, the life expectancies of older women in many countries surpassed that of women in the United States.
  • Certain conditions differ by sex, race, and ethnicity.
    • Women reported higher levels of arthritis than men did
    • men reported higher levels of heart disease and cancer.
    • Non-Hispanic blacks reported higher levels of hypertension and diabetes than did non-Hispanic whites.
    • Hispanics reported higher levels of diabetes than did non-Hispanic whites.
  • Functional limitations declined from 49% in 1992 to 42% in 2005.

Health Risks and Behaviors

long-term improvements but no significant change in recent years.

  • No significant change in the percentage of older people engaged in physical activity between 1997 and 2006.
  • Percentage of people age 65 and older who are obese increased between 1988-1994 and 2005-2006, from 22% to 31

Health Care

Costs for healthcare, particularly prescription drugs have risen dramatically

  • Between 1992 and 2004, average inflation-adjusted health care costs for older Americans increased from $8,644 to $13,052.
  • In 2004, as in the previous 4 years, over half of out-of-pocket health care spending (excluding health insurance premiums) by community-dwelling older people was for purchase of prescription drugs.
  • By 2004, prescription medications accounted for 61 percent of these out-of-pocket expenses. Out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs are expected to decline because of the savings available through the Medicare prescription drug program.
  • The implementation of the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefits is included in the Indicators volume for the first time. From June 2006 through September 2007, the number of beneficiaries age 65 or older enrolled in the program increased from 18.2 million to 19.7 million, with two-thirds selecting stand-alone plans and one-third in Medicare Advantage plans.

Housing

Most older people live in adequate, affordable housing.

  • In 2005, 41% of households with people over age 65 had significant housing-related problems, such as housing cost burden (expenditures on housing and utilities that exceed 30 percent of household income), physically inadequate housing and crowded housing.
  • Prevalence of housing cost burden for households with people age 65 and over increased from 30% in 1985 to 38% in 2005, compared with 26 and 33 percent, respectively, for all U.S. households.
  • Use of Time. The proportion of leisure time that older Americans spent socializing and communicating—such as visiting friends or attending social events—declines by age, from 13 percent in those ages 55 to 64 to 10 percent for those 75 and over. The proportion of leisure time devoted to sports, exercise, recreation and travel also declines with age. On an average day, most Americans age 65 and older spent at least half of their leisure time watching television. Americans age 75 and older spent a higher proportion of their leisure time reading, relaxing and thinking than did those ages 55 to 64.

The Marketing Power of “Neighborhoods”

CPRS members have long been aware of the importance and potential power of sense of community upon people. Move over as the marketers of many companies seem to have discovered that important attribute from a sales point of view. The following recent changes among industry stars reflect this trend including:

  • Starbucks’ new promotional message is best espresso “in the neighborhood”
  • Applebee’s new slogan is “it’s a whole new neighborhood”
  • Wal-Mart opened its first Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market in 1998 and has now expanded that concept to 132 stores with 25 more planned for 2008
  • Lowe’s has launched a new approach for spring that encourages people “to come meet your new neighbors”.

What’s going on? According to Ms. Fraser, a Los Angeles advertising psychologist, in times of global stress and unrest people want a sense of community and belonging to a neighborhood becomes a real motivator. Fraser reminds companies that you can’t just say you are a neigh or neighborhood; you must walk the talk as well.

(Source: "It’s a beautiful (shopping) day in the neighborhood." USA Today, April 2008)

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  © California Park & Recreation Society, 2008. trendSCAN is created for CPRS by Leisure Lifestyle Consulting of Sarasota, FL. Comments and questions can be directed to Dr. Ellen O’Sullivan at leisurlife@aol.com. Please feel free to share interesting trend information with her as well.